Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual peak temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, making the outcome verifiable and objective once the day concludes.

Tokyo's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with typical daily highs ranging from 25–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The current 0% probability on the YES option suggests traders have not yet committed capital to any specific temperature band, which is unsurprising given the market's distance from resolution and the inherent difficulty in forecasting weather months ahead. Historical June records for the Haneda region show variability: the station has recorded highs as low as 21°C and as high as 34°C in the same calendar month across different years, reflecting the seasonal transition period's unpredictability.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by Japan Meteorological Agency in late May, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with greater accuracy. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present in early 2026, could influence broader temperature trends across East Asia. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early monsoon activity or blocking high-pressure systems—would become apparent in the final fortnight before settlement, allowing traders to refine their positioning as the resolution window approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.