Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest air temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the specific condition stated (here, a particular temperature range), while a NO share pays out if any other outcome occurs. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders are virtually certain the temperature will not fall into the specific range being bet on, though the exact range is not defined in the prompt.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability. July in Toronto typically sees daily highs around 26°C (79°F), rarely dropping below 21°C or exceeding 32°C. While a record of 36°C was hit in 2026, such extremes are outliers. The specific market on Polymarket shows 29°C as the frontrunner at 100%, indicating the crowd expects the temperature to be exactly 29°C, making any other range a NO outcome. This aligns with the 0% YES probability if the bet is on a different range, such as 30°C or higher.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts for heavy rain, which can suppress temperatures. Recent forecasts for 9 July indicate heavy rain and showers, with a maximum of 24°C, significantly below the 29°C consensus. This dependency on precipitation is the key catalyst; if rain holds off, temperatures could rise toward the expected 29°C. The resolution relies on Wunderground data, so traders must watch for updates from that source as the settlement window closes on 12:00 UTC on 9 July.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.