Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will fall within a specific temperature range, while a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. This market resolves to the range containing the peak temperature from Wunderground’s data for that day, with settlement ending on 1 July 2026 at noon UTC.

Historically, July is Wellington’s coldest month, with average highs around 14°C and lows near 7°C at the airport[5]. Recent data shows the station reached 25°C only once this summer, far below the typical five days[7]. Current crowd-implied probability for a high above 12°C is 0%, yet other markets suggest 12°C is the frontrunner with 68% implied probability[1]. This divergence highlights how local climatological norms and short-term forecasts shape trader consensus.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from NIWA and real-time updates from the airport’s own portal, which currently reports 12°C with fine conditions[9]. Any sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the peak temperature. While no specific announcements are scheduled, the dependency on Wunderground’s final daily record means traders must watch for data revisions before the settlement window closes[1]. Recent news from NIWA confirms summer anomalies but does not forecast winter extremes, leaving the market anchored in historical averages[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.