Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, traders are betting on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range that contains that daily peak. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs—here, if the temperature lands in a chosen range—while a NO share pays out if it does not. This particular market currently shows a 0% implied probability for any YES outcome, which is an anomaly for a binary-style weather question and suggests the market structure may be misaligned with the actual event or that the specific YES condition being referenced is impossible under the current rules.

Historical data frames how to interpret such probabilities: Wellington’s July highs typically range between 11°C and 13°C, with recent markets for 2 July and 3 July 2026 both settling at 13°C, and the 12 July forecast pointing to 11°C under clearing skies[1][3][4]. The 13 July market, however, shows 13°C as the frontrunner at 97% and 14°C at 3%, indicating strong collective confidence in a 13°C peak[2]. The 0% YES probability likely refers to a specific, narrow condition (e.g., “above 15°C”) that contradicts these forecasts, rather than the entire event.

Traders should monitor MetService’s daily forecasts and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as light northerly flows and clearing skies are expected to keep temperatures near 13–14°C[3][5]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the peak by a single degree, which would instantly change the winning range[4]. Since the market resolves at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, any late-morning temperature spike before that cutoff will determine the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.