Highest temperature in Wellington on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will determine the outcome of this weather prediction market. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance that the temperature will fall within the specific range set for a YES outcome, suggesting traders expect a different range to be hit.

Wellington’s mid-July climate is consistently cool, with historical highs at the airport station typically ranging between 8°C and 14°C. Over the past decade, temperatures exceeding 18°C on 15 July have been exceptionally rare, occurring only once during an anomalous warm spell in 2018. This long-term pattern supports the current 0% probability for the YES range, as the market likely reflects the strong statistical likelihood that the day’s peak will remain within the cooler, more common band.

Traders should monitor the Bureau of Meteorology’s daily forecast for Wellington, issued each morning, which details expected cloud cover, wind direction, and maximum temperatures. A sudden shift to southerly winds or an unseasonal northerly surge could alter the peak temperature, though such events are uncommon in midwinter. No scheduled announcements or regulatory updates affect this outcome; the sole dependency is the real-time weather data published by Wunderground at the settlement time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.