Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to the YES outcome, implying they expect the temperature to miss the target range entirely.

Wellington in mid-July is typically cool, with historical highs at the airport rarely exceeding 15°C. Current BBC Weather data for the station shows a temperature of 15°C with south-south-westerly winds and rising pressure, conditions that align with the region’s standard winter climate rather than a heatwave [1]. This consistent pattern of mild, windy weather in July explains why the market’s implied probability for a higher temperature is effectively zero, as comparable years show no significant deviation from these norms.

Traders should monitor the hourly updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any unexpected shifts in wind direction or cloud cover that might briefly elevate temperatures. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for today, the primary dependency is the real-time station reading, which will be logged continuously until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Given the prevailing south-westerly flow and rising pressure, the likelihood of a sudden temperature spike remains negligible, reinforcing the current market assessment.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.