Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily high temperature. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that highest reading, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out if the actual high falls within your chosen range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The settlement source is historical weather data from Weather Underground, which archives hourly observations from the airport's official station.

Wellington's winter climate in late July typically produces highs between 10–13°C, though the city's exposure to Cook Strait winds and its southerly latitude mean variability is substantial. Historical records show July extremes ranging from below 5°C on cold frontal days to occasional peaks near 16°C during rare warm spells. The current 0% probability on YES suggests the crowd has not yet committed to any specific range, indicating either early-stage market formation or uncertainty about which temperature brackets are most defensible given Wellington's notoriously changeable weather patterns.

The key variable affecting July 25 temperatures will be the position and intensity of the Southern Ocean's pressure systems in the week prior. MetService New Zealand publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days out, which will sharpen visibility on whether a high-pressure system or cold front dominates that date. Sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand remain the primary driver of winter air masses; anomalously warm or cold waters upstream can shift Wellington's typical range by several degrees. Traders should monitor MetService's official forecast updates from mid-July onwards, as the settlement window closes at noon UTC on the 25th itself.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.