Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 8 July 2026 at Wellington International Airport in New Zealand, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the recorded temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the targeted range.

Historically, July in Wellington is one of the coldest months, with typical daytime highs rarely exceeding 15°C. Data from July 2024 at Wellington International Airport shows maximum temperatures hovering near 40°F (roughly 4°C), consistent with the region’s maritime climate and frequent rain and strong winds [1][8]. Even during brief foehn wind events off the Rimutaka Range, which can cause short-term spikes, temperatures have not approached the levels required for the YES outcome in recent years [4]. This long-term pattern supports the current low probability.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from NIWA and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source for this market. Any sudden shift in wind direction, such as a sustained foehn event, could temporarily raise temperatures, though such occurrences are rare in mid-July [4]. Recent forecasts for Wellington indicate continued strong winds and rain with highs near 15°C, reinforcing the likelihood that the temperature will stay well below the threshold [1]. No major weather announcements are expected to alter this outlook before the settlement window closes on 8 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.