Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the real-world event at Wellington International Airport will be the recording of the highest temperature in degrees Celsius, a single data point that determines whether a YES or NO share settles. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range; both are simply bets on the outcome of this weather observation. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not land in the targeted range, likely because the range is set far above typical July highs.

Historical data frames this low probability clearly: July is the coldest month at Wellington International Airport, with an average high of only 54°F (12°C) and an average low of 47°F (8°C)[4]. Recent forecasts for 9 July 2026 show strong winds, rain, and a high of just 52°F (11°C), confirming that temperatures rarely exceed 13°C in mid-winter[1][2]. Given that the climatological centre of the July range sits near 11°C, any market range set significantly higher than this would naturally attract a near-zero probability, as the weather simply does not support such warmth in Wellington during this season[2].

Traders should watch the live weather updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for any sudden shifts in wind patterns or precipitation that might alter the hourly temperature curve[3]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for 9 July, the dependency on real-time sensor data means the settlement hinges entirely on the official record available at the airport station[8]. The primary catalyst is the absence of a heatwave; without a documented surge in temperature, the market will resolve to the lower, more typical winter range, making the 0% probability a rational reflection of Wellington’s consistent mid-winter climate[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.