Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the observed temperature falls within the specific range defined by the market, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the narrow range offered.

Historical data frames this low probability clearly. June in Wellington is typically cool and overcast, with average daily highs dropping from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C) [4]. While MetService recently noted Wellington beat its record June maximum with over 19°C recorded earlier in the month [5], such extremes are rare anomalies against a backdrop of gales and heavy rain [2]. The current 0% probability likely reflects the statistical weight of these consistent, cooler conditions rather than the possibility of another record-breaking spike.

Traders should monitor immediate weather announcements and the MetService forecast schedule for any sudden shifts in wind patterns or precipitation that could alter temperatures. The settlement relies on Wunderground data, so traders must watch for updates as the day progresses, particularly given the current strong south-south-westerly winds and heavy rain [2]. Any unexpected calm or shift in pressure could be a catalyst, though the prevailing forecast of strong winds and drizzle suggests temperatures will remain within the typical cool June range [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.