Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature reached during that calendar day. This market invites traders to predict which temperature range—measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place—will contain that minimum. When you buy a YES share, you're wagering that the actual low falls within your chosen range; a NO share bets it falls elsewhere. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily temperature extremes in its climate records, which serve as the official settlement source once data is finalised.

July is Hong Kong's hottest and most humid month, with overnight lows typically ranging between 25°C and 28°C. Historical data shows that daily minima in mid-July rarely drop below 24°C or exceed 30°C, though tropical storms or unusual weather systems can shift these patterns significantly. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the actual low to fall outside whatever range this market's YES option covers—a signal that either the range is unusually narrow or positioned at an extreme end of the seasonal distribution.

The Hong Kong Observatory issues daily weather forecasts and updates its climate database with finalised readings several days after observation. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity across the western Pacific during early July 2026, as such systems can dramatically alter temperature patterns across the territory. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 July, but the market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes its daily extract data, typically within a week of the observation date.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.