Bitcoin price on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Bitcoin price at noon Eastern Time on 9 June 2026, using the closing price from Binance's one-minute candlestick chart for BTC/USDT. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin closes within a specified price bracket at that exact moment; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that bracket or if Binance data becomes unavailable. The current 0% probability on YES suggests traders expect the price to fall outside the target range, though the specific bracket thresholds are not stated in the market description.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at any given hour typically ranges between 1–3% under normal market conditions, though this can widen considerably during news events or Asian trading hours. Historical precedent shows that noon ET prices often reflect a blend of overnight Asian momentum and early North American session positioning. The 0% implied probability indicates either an extremely wide or extremely narrow price band relative to current spot levels, or that traders view the settlement mechanics (reliance on a single one-minute candle) as introducing execution risk that discounts YES outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic calendars for June 2026, particularly US inflation data and Federal Reserve communications, which typically drive Bitcoin's directional bias. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies can also trigger sharp intraday moves. The reliance on a single minute's data means that flash crashes, exchange outages, or liquidity gaps at precisely noon ET could determine settlement, making this market sensitive to technical execution rather than longer-term price trends alone.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.