World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway, and the focus here is on how many penalty kicks taken during regular, stoppage, or extra time are missed or saved by goalkeepers, excluding any from shootouts. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the total missed penalties equal or exceed the listed number, while a NO share wins if the count stays below it. Currently, the market implies only a 4% chance of a YES outcome, suggesting traders expect a high conversion rate for penalties in this tournament.

Historically, World Cup penalties are converted at roughly 75–80% during match time, with famous misses like Roberto Baggio’s in 1994 standing out as rare anomalies rather than the norm[6]. Recent data shows Harry Kane has missed just one of six attempts, while Lionel Messi has missed two of three, equalling the highest miss count since 1966 for non-shootout penalties[4][10]. These figures frame the current 4% probability as plausible, given that even top strikers occasionally miss, but the overall trend remains heavily towards goals.

Traders should monitor official match reports for penalty awards, referee decisions under new VAR rules that may increase scrutiny on fouls leading to penalties, and any injury-related substitutions that could alter defensive setups[1]. With the tournament running through July 2026, upcoming fixtures involving high-pressure teams like England, Brazil, and France will be critical catalysts, as these sides often draw more fouls in dangerous areas[5]. Any shift in penalty frequency or conversion rates during these matches could quickly alter the market’s implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.