Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the selected range, while a NO share pays out if it does not. This specific market resolves based on data from Wunderground for that single day, with settlement occurring once the window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Historically, July is one of Chengdu’s hottest months, with daytime highs typically reaching 30–35°C and occasional spikes to 38°C [1][2]. The city’s location in the Sichuan Basin traps heat, and recent years show extremes exceeding 37°C, including a 39°C reading on 8 July 2026 [9][10]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for any YES outcome is 0%, this suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside all listed ranges, which is unusual for mid-July in Chengdu unless the ranges are set unusually low.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates on Wunderground, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity can alter peak temperatures. Recent reports indicate China experienced its hottest July on record in 2023, with average temperatures surpassing historical norms since 1961 [4]. While no specific forecast for 13 July 2026 is yet available, the pattern of extreme heat in early July 2026 suggests vigilance for similar conditions continuing into mid-month [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.