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Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Five-platform snapshot of "Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

78-79°F 52% 76-77°F 24% 80-81°F 19% 82-83°F 5% Volume: $164K Liquidity: $52K Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 52% 48% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 52% 48% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
78-79°F52%
76-77°F24%
80-81°F19%
82-83°F5%
84-85°F2%
73°F or below0%
74-75°F0%
86-87°F0%
88-89°F0%
90-91°F0%
92°F or higher0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, highest temperature in nyc on july 5? stands at 52% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26. The resolutio…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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