Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest air temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the specific condition you are betting on, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not fall into the range being offered, even though historical data points to a much warmer day.

Historical patterns and recent forecasts frame how to interpret this near-zero probability. July is Ankara’s hottest month, with average highs around 85°F (29°C) and typical daily peaks reaching 34°C (93°F) under clear skies and rising pressure [5][7]. Just yesterday, 1 July 2026, the highest temperature in Ankara was 31°C, while current forecasts for 2 July predict 34°C with sunny intervals [3][5]. The market’s frontrunner outcome is 34°C at 99% implied probability, indicating tight consensus around this value rather than the cooler range implied by the 0% YES share [1].

Traders should monitor short-range weather updates, particularly announcements on high-pressure systems and cloud cover, which directly influence peak temperatures. The settlement relies on Wunderground data from Esenboğa Airport, so any discrepancies between forecast models and observed readings could shift sentiment. With building high pressure and clear skies expected, the catalyst for any change would be an unexpected shift in wind direction or cloud density, though current conditions strongly support the 34°C outcome [1][5]. No moral judgment is needed on whether to trade; the facts show a clear alignment between forecast consensus and market pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.