Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market invites traders to predict which temperature range will contain that single daily maximum reading. A YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within your chosen range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The Observatory publishes this data to one decimal place in its Daily Extract records, which become the official settlement source once finalised.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year. Historical data shows daily maxima in early June typically cluster between 29°C and 33°C, with occasional excursions to 34°C or above during early-season heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending activation of specific temperature bands. Comparable June days from the past decade provide a reliable baseline: extreme highs above 35°C are rare in early June, whilst readings below 28°C are equally uncommon.

The key dependency is the arrival of the Southwest Monsoon pattern, which typically establishes itself by mid-June and moderates temperatures through increased cloud cover and occasional rainfall. Traders should monitor seasonal weather outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological services in the weeks before settlement. Any early-season heat dome or unusual atmospheric blocking pattern could push temperatures into the upper ranges, though such events remain statistically infrequent for this specific date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.