Highest temperature in Paris on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine whether this prediction market resolves to YES or NO. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range set by the market creator; a NO share pays out if it does not. With the crowd currently implying a 0% chance of YES, traders are effectively betting that the temperature will land outside that narrow band, suggesting the market expects either significantly cooler or hotter conditions than the range allows.

Historically, mid-July in Paris often sees temperatures between 20°C and 30°C, though extreme heatwaves have pushed readings above 35°C, as seen in 2019 and 2022. The current 0% probability implies the market believes the 2026 peak will fall outside the defined range, likely due to either a cool spell or an unprecedented heat spike. Without recent anomalies, such a low probability usually reflects a mismatch between the range and typical seasonal norms, making this a clear case of crowd consensus aligning with historical averages.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from Meteo France and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as these will confirm the day’s peak temperature before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or local heat advisories could alter the outcome, though with settlement imminent, volatility is expected to be minimal. No major announcements are scheduled, so the focus remains entirely on the live temperature data as it approaches the final hours.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.