Highest temperature in Seoul on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this context means you believe the peak temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market, while a NO share indicates you expect it to fall outside that range. With the current crowd-implied probability of YES sitting at 0%, the market is effectively pricing in the event that the temperature will not reach the threshold in question, suggesting traders see little chance of extreme heat hitting that specific band on that day.

Historical patterns for Seoul in June show daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [1]. While South Korea has recorded all-time extremes as high as 41.0°C in neighbouring provinces [2], and Seoul itself hit 39.6°C during a deadly heatwave in a recent year [7], such spikes are uncommon for mid-June. The fact that the market assigns 0% probability implies that the specific range in question likely sits well above the historical norm for this date, making it a statistically improbable outcome based on comparable cases.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and any emerging heatwave advisories, as sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or atmospheric pressure could alter temperature trajectories. Recent reports note that June has already shattered records in cities like Mokko and Daegu, with temperatures soaring to 28.1°C and above [6], indicating a trend of intensifying heat. However, unless a major heat dome develops over the capital region, the Incheon station is unlikely to breach the extreme threshold implied by the market’s zero probability, making the current pricing a reflection of stable, seasonal expectations rather than an outlier event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.