Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 13 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market is betting on, while a NO share pays out if it does not. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0% for YES, the market is effectively certain the temperature will not hit the targeted range, suggesting traders expect conditions to stay below that threshold.

Historical July data for Haneda shows daily highs typically between 28°C and 36°C, with the average high around 30°C to 31°C during the rainy season’s tail end [3][4]. Recent forecasts for 13 July 2026 indicate a maximum of 30°C with rain expected, aligning with the pattern of cooler, cloudier days common in early July [5][8]. This context supports the 0% probability, as the targeted range likely exceeds plausible temperatures for this date and location.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s hourly updates and Wunderground’s live history for the Haneda station, as these are the official resolution sources [6]. Any sudden shift to clear skies or a heatwave announcement from Japanese weather authorities could alter expectations, though current forecasts show no such catalysts [3][4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026, so real-time data from that morning will be decisive.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.