Highest temperature in Toronto on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected temperature range contains that recorded high, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd has assigned a 100% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall within the market’s designated winning bracket.

Historical mid-July highs at Pearson often reach 30–34°C, with 32°C being a frequent peak in recent warm spells. The current frontrunner on a comparable Polymarket contract is 32°C at 38%, followed by 31°C at 29%, suggesting the collective view expects a high in that range rather than extremes below 28°C or above 35°C [1]. This aligns with typical summer patterns for the region, where heatwaves commonly push temperatures into the low 30s without consistently breaching 35°C.

Traders should monitor Environment and Climate Change Canada’s operational forecasts for Toronto, as these often drive sharp repricing before settlement. A recent July 7 case showed that a single forecast update could shift implied probability by 10 percentage points or more within hours of release [3]. The pivotal data point will be the evening forecast for 14 July, which typically sets the tone for the 15 July high. Settlement occurs at noon UTC on 15 July, using Wunderground’s recorded daily high for Pearson as the official resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.