Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range, likely because the forecasted highs for late June in Toronto typically sit between 20°C and 28°C, rarely exceeding the extreme thresholds required for a YES outcome.

Historical data frames this low probability clearly: daily highs in late June at Pearson usually climb from 21°C to 26°C, with records rarely surpassing 31°C unless a severe heatwave occurs. For instance, June 2025 saw similar patterns with highs mostly under 28°C, and long-term averages indicate that temperatures above 32°C are exceptional events. This consistent pattern of moderate warmth explains why the market assigns near-zero chance to the target range, as the weather typically remains well below the extreme levels needed to trigger a payout.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and any announced heatwave warnings from Environment and Climate Change Canada, as sudden shifts in atmospheric conditions could alter the temperature trajectory. Recent updates from The Weather Network suggest stable conditions for late June, with no immediate signs of extreme heat, reinforcing the current 0% probability. Dependencies include real-time data from Wunderground, which will provide the official resolution, so any discrepancies in reporting could impact the final outcome. Staying alert to these forecasts ensures a trader understands the catalysts that might shift the probability away from its current baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.