# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its opening 24 hours. This market divides that outcome into brackets—traders buying a YES share profit if the actual figure lands in their chosen range, whilst a NO share profits if it falls below. The settlement window closes mid-June 2026, though resolution won't occur until a full day has elapsed from the video's publication, ensuring the 24-hour window completes.

MrBeast's recent upload patterns show considerable consistency at the upper end of viewership. His videos routinely exceed 50 million views within 24 hours, with several surpassing 100 million in the same period. In November 2023, his "$1 Million Squid Game" video accumulated over 80 million views in its first day. The 61% implied probability for YES suggests the market expects a strong performance but acknowledges variance—production delays, content type shifts, or algorithm changes could suppress initial velocity. Historical precedent indicates that his core audience engagement remains robust, though seasonal factors and competing releases occasionally dampen first-day performance.

Traders monitoring this market should track MrBeast's upload schedule and any announcements regarding content format or production timelines. His collaboration announcements and promotional activity across social platforms typically precede major releases and correlate with stronger opening-day performance. The settlement dependency on YouTube's official view counter means technical issues or reporting delays could affect resolution timing, though such occurrences remain rare. Any significant shifts in his upload frequency or audience engagement metrics between now and June 2026 would warrant reassessment of baseline expectations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.