Bitcoin price on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the closing price of Bitcoin against the US dollar at noon Eastern Time on 13 June 2026, using Binance's one-minute candle data. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin's price falls within a specific bracket (which the market description indicates but does not fully specify here); a NO share pays out if it falls outside that bracket or if data cannot be obtained. The current 0% probability assigned to YES suggests traders expect the price to land outside the target range, though this may also reflect low liquidity or uncertainty about the exact bracket boundaries.

Bitcoin's price at any given moment reflects global macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and sentiment shifts across major trading venues. Historical volatility around noon ET timestamps shows intraday moves of 1–3% are routine during periods of elevated market activity, whilst calmer sessions often see tighter ranges. The four-year settlement window means traders are forecasting Bitcoin's behaviour across multiple market cycles, including potential shifts in institutional adoption, central bank policy, and geopolitical risk appetite. Recent developments in spot Bitcoin ETF adoption and regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions have altered baseline volatility expectations compared to earlier years.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve communications, major cryptocurrency exchange announcements, and macroeconomic data releases scheduled near the settlement date. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk sentiment remains a primary driver of directional moves. The specificity of the noon ET timestamp means traders must also account for typical intraday trading patterns and the overlap between Asian, European, and North American market hours at that time.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.