Bitcoin price on June 23?

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Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the exact closing price of Bitcoin against USDT on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 23 June 2026. A YES share pays out if the price lands within a specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range or if the data fails to resolve. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders expect the price to miss the target bracket entirely.

Historical data shows Bitcoin has been volatile but generally trending upward, with a peak of $126,198 in October 2025 and a recent dip to around $72,145 in early June 2026 before falling further to approximately $62,184 by mid-June 2026[1][5]. Given the current price near $62,000 and the 0% implied probability, the target bracket likely sits significantly higher than current levels, making a YES outcome unlikely unless a sharp rally occurs. Traders should note that if the price lands exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher one, a rule that can shift outcomes unexpectedly.

Key catalysts to watch include US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, major regulatory announcements from the SEC, and institutional adoption news such as new Bitcoin ETF inflows. Recent reports from Fortune highlight that Bitcoin remains the most popular cryptocurrency, with models projecting values up to $700,000 by 2030, though conservative estimates are closer to $300,000[1]. Any sudden shift in macroeconomic policy or a surge in institutional buying could rapidly alter the price trajectory, potentially moving it into the target bracket despite current pessimism. Traders should monitor the Binance 1-minute candle data closely as the settlement window approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.