What price will Bitcoin hit on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, Bitcoin will either reach a specific price threshold or it won't. In a prediction market, traders buy YES or NO shares based on their belief about the outcome. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin hits that price on the settlement date; a NO share pays out if it doesn't. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are highly confident the target price won't be reached, though the exact threshold isn't specified in the market title—a common feature of price-discovery markets where the crowd effectively sets both the probability and the implicit price target through trading activity.

Bitcoin's volatility has historically made single-day price targets difficult to predict with confidence. Over the past five years, daily moves exceeding 10% have occurred roughly once per quarter during calm periods, yet intraday swings of 15–20% are routine during periods of macroeconomic stress or major regulatory announcements. The 0% probability reading suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally high price target, an exceptionally low one, or both—reflecting scepticism that any single-day move will be dramatic enough to satisfy the settlement criteria by June 2026.

Catalysts affecting Bitcoin's price trajectory include Federal Reserve policy decisions, corporate treasury announcements, and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions. The Bitcoin halving cycle, which last occurred in April 2024, typically influences sentiment in the months following. Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic data releases, statements from major institutional holders, and any legislative movement on digital-asset regulation in the US or EU, all of which have historically moved Bitcoin's price within hours of announcement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.