United States vs. Paraguay

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On Friday, 12 June 2026, the United States men's national football team will face Paraguay in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match. A YES share in this market pays out if the United States wins; a NO share pays out if the result is a draw or Paraguay victory. The current crowd-implied probability of 28% for a US win reflects moderate confidence in the Americans, though the market leaves substantial room for either outcome.

Historical matchups between these sides provide limited precedent for direct comparison. The US and Paraguay have met only twice in competitive fixtures, with the Americans winning both encounters (2-0 in 1995 and 1-0 in 2016). Paraguay's recent World Cup record shows inconsistency: they reached the quarter-finals in 2010 but failed to qualify in 2014 and 2018. The US qualified for every World Cup between 1990 and 2018 before missing 2022, returning to the tournament in 2026. Both teams' form in qualifying rounds and pre-tournament friendlies will significantly influence their relative strength heading into June.

Traders should monitor squad announcements, injury updates, and final warm-up match results in the weeks preceding the fixture. Fixture congestion in the 2025–26 domestic season may affect player availability and fitness levels. The US's performance in earlier group matches will shape tactical approaches and team morale entering this fixture. Paraguay's preparation depth and any late personnel changes will also merit attention, particularly given their thinner squad resources compared to traditional World Cup contenders.

Methodology

This page reviews United States vs. Paraguay across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.