NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District, scheduled for 23 June 2026, which will determine who contests the seat in the 2026 US House elections. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the named outcome occurs—here, if a specific candidate wins the nomination—while a NO share pays out if that outcome does not happen. This market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the named candidate is highly unlikely to win, though the primary remains open with multiple contenders including Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg[1][3].

Historically, crowded primaries in New York’s urban districts have often produced narrow margins and unexpected frontrunners, as seen in recent years where socialist-leaning candidates gained traction on issues like inequality and foreign policy[1]. Comparable cases show that initial polling can shift quickly, with early leads dissolving as later surveys reveal new frontrunners—such as when Schlossberg was initially ahead but Bores and Lasher emerged as top contenders[1]. These patterns frame the current 0% probability as a snapshot of current sentiment rather than a fixed prediction, especially given the narrow margins expected in Tuesday’s contest[1].

Traders should monitor candidate announcements, polling updates, and the official Democratic Party timeline, as any shift in frontrunner status could alter market expectations. Recent polling indicates Lasher is leading Goldman, though margins remain tight, and earlier surveys suggested Bores and Lasher as frontrunners[1]. The primary closes after the nominee is declared, with the market resolving by 3 November 2026 if no nominee is announced[2]. Key dependencies include the consensus of official Democratic sources, such as democrats.org, which will verify the outcome[2]. For context on the race’s financial dynamics and candidate profiles, see coverage from The New Yorker[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.