Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Counter-Strike 2 Grand Final between shimmer and MIBR fe at the Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs, a LAN tournament in Rio de Janeiro where MIBR fe defeated shimmer 3–1 on 26 June 2026[1]. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s specified outcome occurs (here, that shimmer wins), while a NO share pays out if it does not; both are settled when the event concludes or the settlement window expires.

Historically, 100% crowd-implied probabilities in esports Grand Finals are rare and often signal either a pre-resolved result or a market error, as even top-tier matches usually retain 5–15% uncertainty for the underdog[1]. Comparable cases from Strafe and Liquipedia show that when a team wins decisively before a market settles, the market resolves to the winner regardless of pre-match odds, and 100% YES shares typically fail if the match was already decided[1][7].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for match cancellations, delays beyond seven days, or tie resolutions, which would force a 50–50 settlement[1]. Key dependencies include the event’s completion status and whether MIBR fe’s prior victory is formally recorded, as this directly determines the market’s outcome[1][4]. Recent post-match discussions confirm MIBR fe’s advancement to the Grand Final, making shimmer’s win highly improbable unless the match is replayed[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.