Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Falcons and Team Liquid will face off in the upper bracket quarterfinals of the BLAST Slam Playoffs, a best-of-three Dota 2 tournament match scheduled for 4 June at 08:30 ET. The crowd-implied probability of 75% YES reflects a strong expectation that Falcons will advance. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Falcons win; a NO share bets on Liquid. Traders holding YES shares profit if Falcons take the series 2–0 or 2–1, whilst NO holders profit if Liquid wins. The settlement window closes at 18:30 ET on 4 June, allowing roughly ten hours from the scheduled start time for the match to conclude.

Historically, Falcons have maintained a stronger regional standing in the Middle East and South Asia competitive circuit, whilst Liquid remains a European powerhouse with deeper experience in international tournaments. The 75% probability suggests the market views Falcons as favourites, likely reflecting recent form, roster stability, or head-to-head records. However, Liquid's international pedigree and tournament experience in high-pressure playoffs have often enabled them to perform above regional expectations.

Key variables for traders include last-minute roster changes, technical delays affecting the BLAST infrastructure, and any schedule shifts announced by organisers. The match dependency on BLAST's broadcast schedule means delays beyond the seven-day window would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Monitor official BLAST Slam communications and team social media for withdrawal announcements or equipment issues in the 24 hours before play.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.