Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The BLAST Slam Playoffs will feature an upper bracket quarterfinal between Aurora and Team Yandex on 4 June at 05:00 ET. A prediction market share works simply: a YES share pays out if Aurora wins the best-of-three match, whilst a NO share pays out if Team Yandex prevails. The current crowd-implied probability of 8% for Aurora reflects strong confidence in Team Yandex's chances, meaning traders pricing YES shares expect Aurora to pull off a significant upset.

Team Yandex has established itself as the favoured side in recent Dota 2 competitive fixtures, with a track record of consistent performances in regional qualifiers and international tournaments. Aurora, by contrast, has faced inconsistent results against top-tier opposition, which explains the substantial odds gap. Historical precedent in Dota 2 upper bracket matches shows that favourites at this probability level (around 8–12%) do occasionally lose, particularly when facing teams with strong mid-game coordination or unconventional drafting strategies. However, the 92% implied probability for Team Yandex suggests the market has priced in their structural advantages fairly substantially.

Traders monitoring this match should track roster announcements or stand-in confirmations in the days preceding 4 June, as player availability directly affects team cohesion in best-of-three formats. The scheduled 05:00 ET start time is early for Western markets but standard for BLAST's international scheduling. Any delays beyond 7 days without a completed result trigger a 50–50 resolution, so settlement certainty depends on the event proceeding on schedule. Recent patch notes and hero pool shifts in the weeks before the match may also shift competitive dynamics, particularly if meta changes favour Aurora's traditional strengths.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.