LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A best-of-three League of Legends match between Forsaken and Karmine Corp Blue will determine group advancement in EMEA Masters, Riot's second-tier European competition. The decider is scheduled for 12 June 2026 at 11:00 AM Eastern Time. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Forsaken will win; a NO share bets on Karmine Corp Blue's victory. The 0% implied probability currently assigned to Forsaken suggests the market views them as heavy underdogs, though such extreme readings often reflect low trading volume rather than certainty.

EMEA Masters features rosters of developing players and academy teams competing for qualification spots. Historical context matters here: Karmine Corp, the French organisation's secondary squad, typically fields experienced players rotated from the main LEC roster, whilst Forsaken's composition and recent form determine their competitive standing. Without recent match data between these specific rosters, traders should examine their head-to-head records, individual player transfers, and performance trajectories across the current season. The 0% probability warrants scrutiny—such readings occasionally indicate missing information or minimal market participation rather than genuine certainty.

Traders should monitor official EMEA Masters scheduling announcements for any postponements or roster changes announced before the 12 June fixture. Patch notes released by Riot in the weeks leading up to the match can shift champion viability and team preparation priorities. The settlement window closes on 13 June at 00:10 UTC, allowing roughly 13 hours after the scheduled start time for the match to conclude. Any cancellation, tie, or delay exceeding seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution, a detail that protects against indefinite postponements.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.