Ethereum above 2026 on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles based on Ethereum's price at a single moment: the close of the 1-minute candle at noon Eastern Time on 13 June 2026, as recorded on Binance's ETH/USDT pair. A YES share pays out if that closing price exceeds the threshold named in the title; a NO share pays out if it closes at or below it. The 100% probability currently displayed suggests the crowd expects Ethereum to trade above the specified level at that precise timestamp, though such certainty in crypto markets often reflects either an extremely high threshold or very limited trading activity in the market.

Single-candle price resolution markets are sensitive to intraday volatility and the specific exchange's order-book dynamics at settlement time. Historical precedent from similar Ethereum micro-resolution markets shows that noon ET often coincides with overlapping US and European trading sessions, when volume and spreads tend to narrow. However, flash crashes, large market orders, or sudden news can shift the 1-minute close substantially. The three-year window to June 2026 means long-term macro factors—regulatory developments, Ethereum's technical roadmap progress, and broader macroeconomic conditions—will shape the underlying price range, but the final settlement depends entirely on Binance's recorded candle at that instant, not on daily or weekly averages.

Traders should monitor Ethereum's technical levels in the weeks before settlement and watch for scheduled events that might affect volatility near noon ET on that date. Ethereum's Shanghai and subsequent upgrades, staking participation rates, and any major exchange listing or delisting announcements could shift baseline expectations. Binance's system status and any API anomalies should also be tracked, as settlement relies on their specific 1-minute candle data.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.