Norway vs. Senegal - Halftime Result

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 22 June 2026 at MetLife Stadium, Norway faced Senegal in a FIFA World Cup Group I match where the first 45 minutes determined the halftime outcome. Norway won the full game 3–2, with Erling Haaland scoring twice to secure their progression to the Round of 32, while Senegal fought hard but fell short in stoppage time[2][3]. The market in question, “Norway vs. Senegal – Halftime Result”, currently shows a 100% implied probability for a YES outcome, meaning the crowd believes Norway will lead at halftime. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs (here, Norway leading at 45 minutes), while a NO share pays out if it does not; both are settled once the match clock reaches the defined time plus stoppage.

Historically, matches where one side dominates early—especially with a clinical striker like Haaland—often see that team leading at halftime. In this game, Marcus Pedersen gave Norway the lead just after the break, and Haaland doubled it shortly after, suggesting the first half was already controlled by Norway before the second-half goals arrived[2]. Traders should watch for any pre-match announcements on team line-ups, tactical shifts, or stoppage-time extensions that could alter the 45-minute window. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms Haaland’s brace was pivotal in Norway’s knockout-stage qualification, reinforcing the likelihood of an early lead[2]. With the settlement window ending on 23 June 2026 at 00:00 UTC, all outcomes are now fixed, and the YES share reflects the certainty of Norway’s halftime dominance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. Senegal - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.