Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is a lower-bracket final in the North America Closed Qualifier for The International 2026, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a best-of-three match. A YES share in this market pays out if 4 Anchors and Ilmeria win the match, while a NO share pays out if the bug wins. With the crowd-implied probability at 50%, the market views this as a coin-flip contest between two teams with no prior head-to-head history.

Historical precedents in regional qualifiers often show that lower-ranked teams can overcome higher-ranked opponents when momentum and roster stability align. The bug, ranked #80, sits 38 places below 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (#42), yet both teams share identical 50% win rates recently [2]. Comparable cases from past TI qualifiers reveal that a single lost streak for the lower-ranked side does not guarantee defeat if the higher-ranked team is also on a losing run, making the 50% probability a rational reflection of this balanced uncertainty.

Traders should monitor the official match start time and any roster announcements before the game begins, as delays or substitutions can shift the outcome. The match was scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June, and any delay beyond seven days without a winner would resolve the market to 50-50 [1]. Recent coverage from Ensigame confirms the lineups: the bug features Newsham, boris, iAnnihilate, empyreaN, and Nyx, while 4 Anchors and Ilmeria play with dnm, King Potato, Yanbura, bigfatbeee, and hatedere [2]. No further news updates have been issued since the schedule was confirmed, so the primary catalyst remains the live match performance itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.