Argentina vs. Austria - Exact Score

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Market context

Argentina and Austria meet in a FIFA World Cup group match scheduled for 22 June 2026 at 17:00 UTC in Dallas, and this market pays out on the exact score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, with extra time and penalties ignored. In prediction-market terms, a **YES share** wins if the listed score outcome happens; a **NO share** wins if it does not, including if the match ends on a different scoreline or falls into the market’s “Any Other Score” bucket.

The current crowd price of 8% YES is best read as a low belief that one specific scoreline will land. That is consistent with football score markets in general: even when one side is strongly favoured, the most likely outcome is usually a small set of low-scoring results rather than a single exact score. Opta’s pre-match model gives Argentina a 60.1% win probability, compared with 22.4% for a draw and 17.6% for Austria, which supports the idea that the exact-score field is inherently hard to call despite Argentina’s advantage.[1] ESPN’s market line also shows Argentina as the favourite, with a draw priced at +275 and Austria at +550, reinforcing that the broad match outlook is one-sided even before you narrow it to the exact score.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the match remains on schedule, because this market only settles on the completed regulation result.[3] FIFA’s match centre confirms the venue and kick-off time, so any change to team news or match timing would matter more here than broader tournament narratives.[3] In practice, exact-score markets tend to move most sharply once starting XIs are announced, because a surprise absence can shift expectations for both team strength and the chance of a narrow, low, or high-scoring finish.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.