Haiti vs. Scotland

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on Saturday, 13 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Haiti will win the match outright; a NO share bets on any other outcome (Scotland victory or a draw). The current crowd-implied probability of 62% YES suggests traders believe Haiti are favoured, though this reflects market sentiment rather than established odds from traditional bookmakers.

Scotland have qualified for the World Cup five times since 1974 but have never progressed beyond the group stage. Haiti qualified for the 2018 World Cup after a 32-year absence and exited in the group phase. Head-to-head records between these nations are sparse; they have not played competitively in recent memory. Scotland's recent competitive record shows mixed results—they finished second in their Euro 2024 qualifying group but have struggled in Nations League fixtures. Haiti's qualification pathway involved Caribbean regional competition, where they demonstrated sufficient depth to advance, though their squad typically lacks the professional depth of European counterparts.

Traders should monitor team news and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding Scotland's key players in midfield and attack. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may also influence match intensity, depending on results in other games. The settlement window closes on 14 June at 01:00 UTC, allowing roughly 24 hours after the scheduled kick-off for final confirmation. Recent World Cup tournaments have shown that group-stage outcomes often diverge from pre-tournament expectations, particularly when teams from different confederations meet with limited prior competitive history.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.