Bitcoin price on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the closing price of Bitcoin against the US dollar at precisely noon Eastern Time on 12 June 2026, using Binance's one-minute candle data. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin's price falls within a specified bracket at that exact moment; a NO share pays if it falls outside that bracket or if data cannot be retrieved. The current 0% probability assigned to YES suggests traders believe the price will fall outside the target range, though the specific brackets are not disclosed in this summary.

Bitcoin's spot price at any given minute reflects real-time trading across global exchanges, with Binance being one of the largest venues. Historical volatility in Bitcoin's intraday moves—often 2–5% swings within a single trading day—means that pinpointing a precise noon price eighteen months forward carries substantial uncertainty. Previous prediction markets on Bitcoin's price at fixed timestamps have shown that crowd estimates tend to cluster around recent price levels and technical support/resistance zones, though geopolitical events, regulatory announcements, and macroeconomic shifts can shift expectations dramatically.

Key variables affecting Bitcoin's trajectory through mid-2026 include Federal Reserve policy decisions, institutional adoption trends, and any major regulatory developments from the US Securities and Exchange Commission or international bodies. Recent spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the US have broadened retail and institutional access, potentially affecting price stability. Traders monitoring this market should track quarterly earnings reports from major crypto custodians, any legislative moves in Congress, and shifts in global monetary policy, as these have historically moved Bitcoin's price by thousands of dollars within hours.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.