Bitcoin price on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the closing price of Bitcoin against the US dollar at noon Eastern Time on 4 June 2026, using Binance's one-minute candle data. A YES share pays out if Bitcoin's price falls within a specific bracket (the exact range is not specified in the market description provided); a NO share pays out if it does not, or if data cannot be retrieved. The settlement mechanism ties directly to a single, verifiable data point—the final tick of the 12:00 ET candle on that date—rather than an average or subjective assessment.

The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state rather than a forecast of impossibility. In prediction markets, extreme probabilities often signal either genuine consensus or insufficient liquidity and trader participation. Bitcoin's historical volatility—ranging from under $20,000 to over $69,000 in recent years—means any specific price bracket two years hence carries genuine uncertainty. Past markets on cryptocurrency prices have typically shown wider probability distributions when settlement dates are distant, as long-term price paths remain highly contingent on regulatory shifts, macroeconomic conditions, and technological developments.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy signals, major cryptocurrency regulation announcements (particularly from the SEC and CFTC), and Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and inflation expectations. Binance's operational status and any changes to its data reporting standards would also affect settlement reliability. The eighteen-month window to settlement provides ample time for material shifts in market structure and investor positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.