Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Maxx Crosby, the Las Vegas Raiders' defensive end, is under contract through 2026. This market asks whether he will move to a different NFL franchise by the end of August 2026, or remain with Las Vegas. A YES share pays out if Crosby signs with another team; a NO share pays out if he stays put or leaves professional football entirely. The settlement window closes on 1 September 2026, capturing all official roster moves through the summer transfer period.

The 0% YES probability reflects Crosby's current status as a Raiders cornerstone player on a long-term deal. Comparable edge-rushers of similar age and contract standing—such as T.J. Watt or Micah Parsons—have remained with their original franchises through multi-year agreements. However, mid-career trades do occur in the NFL, particularly when teams rebuild or face salary-cap constraints. The Raiders' financial position and draft strategy over the next two seasons will materially affect whether they retain Crosby or explore trade options.

Traders should monitor the Raiders' front-office decisions following the 2025 NFL Draft and free-agency period. Announcements regarding the team's defensive rebuild, coaching changes, or cap restructuring could signal intent to move Crosby. Contract extension negotiations or restructuring would typically occur by mid-2026 and would reduce trade likelihood. Any public reporting from established NFL sources—ESPN, The Athletic, or NFL.com—regarding trade interest from other franchises would be the primary catalyst shifting probabilities. The market settles before the 2026 regular season begins, so all relevant moves must conclude during the off-season window.

Methodology

This page reviews Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.