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2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

Five-platform snapshot of "2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

0% YES 100% NO Volume: $196K Liquidity: $122K Closes: 3 Jun 2026
Trade on Prediction Market UK →
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Prediction Market UK Pick
polygram.ink
 0% 100% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open on Prediction Market UK →
Polymarket
polymarket.com
 0% 100% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open on Prediction Market UK →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open on Prediction Market UK →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open on Prediction Market UK →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open on Prediction Market UK →

Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Market UK.

Active sub-markets

Chong Won-oh 6-9%0% YES100% NO
Chong Won-oh <3%0% YES100% NO
Oh Se-hoon 3-6%0% YES100% NO
Other0% YES100% NO
Chong Won-oh 9%+0% YES100% NO
Chong Won-oh 3-6%0% YES100% NO

Market context

Market consensus: 0% chance of 2026 seoul mayoral election: margin of victory. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between t…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?
Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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