Trump declassifies new UFO files by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Trump administration's potential release of previously classified documents on extraterrestrial life or unidentified aerial phenomena represents a distinct policy outcome separate from the routine declassification reviews that occur across administrations. A YES share pays out if the Executive Office of the President or any executive branch department—including the Department of Defence—releases files on these subjects that have not been in the public domain before the deadline of 30 June 2026. A NO share pays out if no such release occurs. The current 0% probability reflects trader scepticism about the likelihood of material new disclosures within this timeframe.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The 2017–2021 Trump administration did authorise the release of previously classified Pentagon videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, though these had already been leaked to media outlets. President Biden's administration subsequently mandated a declassification review of UAP-related records under the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, with a deadline of 25 June 2024. That review produced limited new material. The distinction between confirming existence of files and releasing substantive new content has proven significant in past cases.

Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, established in 2022. Any executive order on declassification priorities, congressional pressure for UAP transparency, or statements from the incoming administration regarding intelligence review procedures could shift expectations. The market's settlement hinges on demonstrable release of previously unavailable documents, not statements or acknowledgements of their existence.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.