Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia’s presidential runoff has now been decided in the national count, but this market is about a narrower question: which candidate receives the most valid votes in Bogotá’s Capital District in the second round. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the named outcome happens and **NO** pays out if it does not, so the price is the crowd’s estimate of that district-level result rather than the overall winner. Reuters reported that Abelardo De La Espriella led the countrywide runoff tally as ballots were counted, with Iván Cepeda close behind and turnout above 26 million nationally.[1]

For context, Bogotá is Colombia’s largest and most politically important city, and urban vote shares there often differ from the national balance. The current **99% YES** implies the market expects the listed candidate to top the Bogotá count by a very wide margin, leaving little room for late-count reversals. That is more extreme than the broader national contest, which Reuters described as close, and it suggests traders are pricing in a strong district advantage rather than just a general election lead.[1]

The main catalysts to watch are the official Bogotá district count, any updates from Colombia’s electoral authority, and whether remaining ballots alter the city-level order before the settlement window closes. Colombia’s runoff results are typically reported first as preliminary counts and then subject to later scrutiny, so the key dependency is whether the Bogotá tally is finalised cleanly before the market resolves.[1][5] If there are disputes, recount requests, or delays in the district reporting process, those could matter only if they change which candidate finishes first in Bogotá, not who wins nationally.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.