ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 June 2026, Sri Lanka and Ireland Women will face off in Match 20 of the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup at Bristol County Ground, with the match starting at 06:30 local time. A YES share in this prediction market means you believe Sri Lanka will win the match outright; a NO share means you expect Ireland to win or the match to end in a tie without a decisive tiebreak. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES suggests the market overwhelmingly expects Sri Lanka to prevail, a stance that mirrors their dominant 7-wicket victory over Ireland in their first T20I encounter earlier in the tournament[7].

Historically, such extreme probabilities in women’s cricket often reflect genuine form disparities rather than market bias, as seen when New Zealand held off a fierce Ireland in a narrow 4-run win earlier in this World Cup[6]. Sri Lanka, crowned Asia Cup champions, have shown consistent resilience, while Ireland’s recent hard-fought matches suggest they remain competitive but less likely to overcome top-tier opponents on this stage[4]. Traders should watch for official team announcements, pitch reports from Bristol County Ground, and any weather updates that could affect play, as these factors can shift outcomes even in seemingly settled markets. ESPN Cricinfo, the official resolver for this market, will publish the finalized result, including any Super Over outcomes if the match ends tied[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.