Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, Japan and Sweden will face off in a decisive FIFA World Cup Group F match, with this market betting on whether the final score after 90 minutes matches a specific exact outcome. A YES share means you believe the match will end with that precise score; a NO share means you expect any other result. The crowd currently assigns only a 6% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting the market views that exact score as unlikely compared to the broader range of possible results.

Historically, Japan and Sweden have met five times, with Japan winning once, Sweden winning twice, and two matches ending in draws, indicating a competitive but not heavily skewed rivalry[1]. In recent World Cup group stages, both teams have shown mixed form: Japan drew 2–2 with the Netherlands and won 4–0 against Tunisia, while Sweden lost to the Netherlands and sits with three points from two games[2]. Such tight group dynamics often produce low-scoring, cautious matches, making exact high-score outcomes rare and supporting the low 6% probability for specific scores.

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements, injury updates, and tactical shifts from both squads before the match, as these can drastically alter scoring potential. Recent previews highlight Alexander Isak as a key threat for Sweden, while Japan’s balanced quality across all lines is expected to dominate, with some analysts predicting a 2–1 or 3–1 result[3]. With the settlement window closing at 23:00 UTC on 25 June, any postponement will keep the market open, but cancellation without a replay would void it. Watch official FIFA and team channels for the latest squad news ahead of kick-off.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.