Netherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Netherlands meet Sweden in a FIFA World Cup group match, and this market pays out on the **exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time** only; extra time and penalties do not count. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share wins if the match finishes on the specified scoreline, while a **NO** share wins if it does not, including if the result lands in the market’s “Any Other Score” bucket.

A 5% crowd-implied probability suggests the market is pricing a fairly specific outcome rather than a broad match view. That is consistent with football scoreline markets, where even plausible game states are individually unlikely because goals cluster around a few common results. Reuters notes Sweden arrive with confidence after their best World Cup scoring performance in 88 years, while ESPN’s pre-match numbers show the Netherlands as a narrow favourite, with Sweden priced as the underdog and the draw also live.[1][2] In that kind of setup, traders usually compare the listed score options against the market’s implied balance of power, rather than against the simple win-draw-loss market.

The main catalysts are line-up news, late injury or suspension updates, and any change to kick-off timing or venue, because this market stays open if the match is postponed and only settles once the game is completed. The Reuters preview and FIFA match listing both confirm the fixture context and timing, while ESPN’s match page shows current win and totals pricing that can help frame how open or tight the game is expected to be.[1][2][5] For exact-score markets, small shifts in expected goals matter: a more cautious team selection or an early goal can change the likelihood of a 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or a higher-scoring “Any Other Score” result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Netherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.