Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Market UK Pick polygram.ink |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Market UK.
Active sub-markets
| England (-1.5) | 71% England | 30% Costa Rica |
| Costa Rica (-1.5) | 0% Costa Rica | 100% England |
| England (-2.5) | 35% England | 65% Costa Rica |
| Costa Rica (-2.5) | 0% Costa Rica | 100% England |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% Over | 19% Under |
Market context
England will face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market asks whether additional betting markets will be created for the match beyond those already available. A YES share appreciates if new markets launch; a NO share appreciates if the offering remains static. The current crowd-implied probability of 71% suggests traders expect supplementary markets to materialise, reflecting typical patterns for high-profile international fixtures involving major football nations.
Prediction markets on friendly matches have historically expanded their offerings when fixtures involve teams with substantial betting populations. England's participation typically triggers broader market creation than lower-tier nations would generate. Comparable June international friendlies in prior tournament cycles have seen initial market clusters grow within 48 hours of fixture confirmation, particularly when broadcasters announce television slots and team news becomes public. The 71% probability aligns with this precedent—traders are pricing in a moderately high likelihood that market operators will respond to demand by opening additional wagering options on goals, cards, player performances, or half-time outcomes.
Key catalysts include official team sheet announcements, which usually arrive 24 hours before kickoff and can trigger fresh market creation as injury status becomes certain. Broadcast confirmation and scheduling details from the Football Association or FIFA will also influence whether operators judge the fixture sufficiently prominent to justify expanding their market suite. Liquidity patterns and early trading volume on existing markets will signal operator appetite for expansion. The settlement window closes at 20:00 GMT on match day, giving traders a defined endpoint to assess whether new markets have launched.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $514K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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