Norway vs. England - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

On Saturday, 11 July at 5:00 PM ET, Erling Haaland’s Norway will face Harry Kane’s England in the FIFA World Cup quarter-final at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. A YES share in this market pays out if more goals are scored in this match than in the preceding quarter-final; a NO share pays out if fewer or equal goals occur. With the crowd-implied probability at just 9% for YES, the market expects a relatively low-scoring affair, though prediction markets reflect collective sentiment rather than certainty.

Historically, high-stakes knockout matches often produce fewer goals than earlier rounds due to cautious tactics and defensive discipline. England beat Norway in both of their encounters this millennium, and both teams have shown resilience in tight games—England’s 3-2 win over Mexico was chaotic, but Norway’s path has been marked by controlled efficiency. In recent World Cup quarter-finals, the average goal count has hovered near 2.5, with several matches ending 1-0 or 1-1, supporting the low YES probability.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements on starting line-ups, especially any injuries to key attackers like Haaland or Kane, and watch for late tactical shifts reported by outlets such as The Athletic [4]. Ticket resale data also hints at fan expectations: quarter-final tickets range from $450 to $1,775 officially, with secondary prices soaring to $5,500, suggesting high demand but not necessarily a high-scoring game [2]. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 11 July, so all goal counts must be finalised before then.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. England - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.