Panama vs. England

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On Saturday, 27 June 2026, Panama and England will face off in a FIFA World Cup group match at MetLife Stadium, with the game kicking off at 17:00 EST (21:00 GMT). In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if Panama wins this match, while a NO share pays out if England wins or the game ends in a draw. The current crowd-implied probability of 11% for YES reflects a market view that Panama’s victory is unlikely, anchored in the stark historical disparity between the two sides.

Historically, England holds a commanding edge over Panama, having won their only prior meeting 6–1 in the 2018 World Cup group stage, a result that also marked Panama’s first-ever World Cup goal[3][5]. England has reached eight successive World Cups, with their sole victory coming in 1966, whereas Panama qualified for the tournament in 2018 and again in 2026, their first appearance ever[4][8]. In Group LP, England sits first with 4 points from one win, while Panama is third with zero points after one loss, underscoring the form gap that frames the 11% probability[1][2].

Traders should monitor England’s squad announcements and tactical setup ahead of the match, as any shift in midfield dominance could further suppress Panama’s chances. Recent previews note Panama is one of five teams already eliminated from the tournament, limiting their momentum and raising the stakes for England to secure progression[1]. With the settlement window closing at 21:00 GMT on 27 June, the outcome hinges on live performance, but the pre-match data strongly favours England’s superior record and current form.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Panama vs. England on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.