Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled to kick off at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, 25 June at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles[1][2]. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market condition—here, that the game features more total markets than a baseline—is met, while a NO share pays out if it is not met. This specific market currently implies a 32% chance of YES, suggesting traders view the condition as unlikely but not impossible[1].

Historically, World Cup matches in Group D involving the USMNT have averaged fewer than six distinct betting markets in early tournament stages, with most activity concentrating on the final result and total goals[2][6]. Comparable fixtures between Türkiye and top-tier nations in recent years typically generated around five to seven markets, rarely exceeding ten unless the match was a knockout stage decider[3][4]. Given this is a Group D encounter with the US playing their third match, the current 32% probability aligns with the pattern that early-stage games attract fewer market offerings than high-stakes knockout rounds.

Traders should monitor the official broadcast schedule and any late announcements regarding market expansions from major sportsbooks, as FOX and FS1 will cover all 72 Group Stage games live, potentially influencing market depth[3][5]. A key catalyst is the timing of the final whistle and any post-match disciplinary decisions, which can trigger additional prop markets like fouls or cards[4]. Recent coverage confirms the match is set for SoFi Stadium with doors opening at 4:00 PM, meaning any pre-match incidents could alter the market landscape before kickoff[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.